UPSC IES/ISS Exam 2011 - INDIAN ECONOMIC SERVICE/INDIAN STATISTICAL SERVICE EXAMINATION, 2011

UNION PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION (UPSC)

Dholpur House, Shahjahan Road, New Delhi – 110 069

SCHEME /SYLLABUS FOR INDIAN ECONOMIC SERVICE/INDIAN STATISTICAL SERVICE EXAMINATION, 2011
Reference / Source : Employment News Paper / Rozgar Samachar Paper 30 July - 5 August 2011 , UPSC Website

SCHEME OF EXAMINATION

SECTION-I

1. The examination shall be conducted according to the following Plan:

Part I.

Written examination carrying a maximum of 1000 marks in the subjects as shown below.

Part II.

maximum of 200 marks.

Viva voce of such candidates as may be called by the Commission, carrying a

PART-I

The subjects of the written examination under Part I, the maximum marks allotted to each subject/paper and the time allowed shall be as follows:-

A. INDIAN ECONOMIC SERVICE

Sl.No. Subject Maximum marks Time allowed

1. General English 100 3 hours

2. General Studies 100 3 hours

3. General Economics-I 200 3 hours

4. General Economics-II 200 3 hours

5. General Economics-III 200 3 hours

6. Indian Economics 200 3 hours

B. INDIAN STATISTICAL SERVICE

Sl.No. Subject Maximum marks Time allowed

1. General English 100 3 hours

2. General Studies 100 3 hours

3. Statistics-I 200 3 hours

4. Statistics-II 200 3 hours

5. Statistics-III 200 3 hours

6. Statistics-IV 200 3 hours

Note:

2. The question papers in all the subjects will be of Conventional (essay) type.

3. ALL QUESTION PAPERS MUST BE ANSWERED IN ENGLISH. QUESTION PAPERS

WILL BE SET IN ENGLISH ONLY.

4. Candidates must write the papers in their own hand. In no circumstances, will they be allowed the help of a scribe to write the answers for them.

5. The Commission have discretion to fix qualifying marks in any or all the subjects of the examination.

6. If a candidate’s handwriting is not easily legible, a deduction will be made on this account, from the total marks otherwise accruing to him/her.

7. Marks will not be allotted for mere superficial knowledge.

8. Credit will be given for orderly, effective and exact expression combined with due economy of words.

9. In the question papers, wherever required, SI units will be used.

10. Candidates will be allowed the use of Scientific (Non-Programmable type) Calculator at the examination. Programmable type calculators will, however, not be allowed and the use of such calculators shall tantamount to resorting to unfair means by the candidates. Loaning or interchanging of calculators in the Examination Hall is not permitted.

11. Candidates should use only International form of Indian numerals (e.g. 1,2,3,4,5,6

etc.) while answering question papers.

The details of standard and syllabi for the examination are given in Section II below.

PART-II

Viva voce–

The interview is intended to supplement the written examination for testing the general and specialised knowledge and abilities of the candidate. The candidate will be expected to have taken an intelligent interest not only in his/her subjects of academic study but also in events which are happening around him/her both within and outside his/her own State or country, as well as in modern currents of thought and in new discoveries which should rouse the curiosity of well-educated youth.

2. The technique of the interview is not that of a strict cross examination, but of a natural, through directed and purposive conversation, intended to reveal mental qualities of the candidate and his/her grasp of problems. The Board will pay special attention to assessing the intellectual curiosity, critical powers of assimilation, balance of judgement and alertness of mind, the ability for social cohesion, integrity of character, initiation and capacity of leadership.

The candidate will be interviewed by a Board of competent and unbiased observers who will have before them a record of his/her career. The object of the interview is to assess his/her suitablity for the Service for which he/she has competed.

SECTION-II

STANDARD AND SYLLABI

The standard of papers in General English and General Studies will be such as may be expected of a graduate of an Indian University.

The standard of papers in the other subjects will be that of the Master’s degree examination of an Indian University in the relevant disciplines. The candidates will be expected to illustrate theory by facts, and to analyse problems with the help of theory.

They will be expected to be particularly conversant with Indian problems in the field of

Economic/Statistics.

GENERAL ENGLISH

Candidates will be required to write an essay in English. Other questions will be designed to test their understanding of English and workmanlike use of words.

Passages will usually be set for summary or precis.

GENERAL STUDIES

General Knowledge including knowledge of current events and of such matters of every day observation and experience in their scientific aspects as may be expected of an educated person who has not made a special study of any scientific subject. The paper will also include questions on Indian Polity including the political system and the Constitution of India, History of India and Geography of a nature which the candidate should be able to answer without special study.

GENERAL ECONOMICS-I

PART A:

1. Theory of Consumer’s Demand:

Cardinal utility Analysis; Marginal utility and demand, Consumer’s surplus, Indifference curve Analysis and utility function, Price income and substitution effects, Slutsky theorem and derivation of demand curve,Revealed preference theory. Duality and indirect utility function and expenditure function, Choice under risk and uncertainty.

2. Theory of Production:

Duality and cost function, Measures of productive efficiency of firms, technical and allocative efficiency. Partial Equilibrium versus General Equilibrium approach.

Equilibrium of the firm and industry.

Factors of production and production function. Forms of Production Functions: Cobb-Douglas, CES and Fixed coefficient type, Translog production function. Laws of return, Returns to scale and Return to factors of production.

3. Theory of Value:

Pricing under different market structures, public sector pricing, marginal cost pricing, peak load pricing, cross-subsidy free pricing and average cost pricing. Marshallian and Walrasian stability analysis. Pricing with incomplete information and moral hazard problems.

4. Theory of Distribution:

Neo classical distribution theories; Marginal productivity theory of determination of factor prices, Factor shares and adding up problems. Euler’s theorem, Pricing of factors under imperfect competition, monopoly and bilateral monopoly. Macro-distribution theories of Ricardo, Marx, Kaldor, Kalecki.

5. Welfare Economics:

Inter-personal comparison and aggregation problem, Public goods and externality, Divergence between social and private welfare, compensation principle. Pareto optimality. Social choice and other recent schools, including Coase and Sen and Game theory.

PART B:

Quantitative Methods in Economics:

1. Mathematical Methods in Economics:

in economics. Linear algebra and Linear programming in economics and Input-output model of Leontief.

Differentiation and Integration and their application in economics. Optimisation techniques, Sets, Matrices and their application

2. Statistical and Econometric Methods:

curves based on various linear and non-linear function. Least square methods and

other multivariate analysis (only concepts and interpretation of results). Analysis of

Variance, Factor analysis, Principle component analysis, Discriminant analysis.

Income distribution: Pareto law of Distribution, lognormal distribution, measurement

of income inequality. Lorenze curve and Gini coefficient.

Measures of central tendency and dispersions, Correlation and Regression. Time series. Index numbers. Sampling and Survey methods. Testing of hypothesis, simple non-parametric tests. Drawing of

GENERAL ECONOMICS-II

1. Economic Thought:

Keynesian and Monetarist schools of thought.

Mercantilism Physiocrats, Clasical, Marxist, Neo-classical,

2. Concept of National Income and Social Accounting:

Green national income.

Measurement of National Income, Inter relationship between three measures of national income in the presence of the Government sector and International transactions. Environmental considerations,

3. Theory of employment, Output, Inflation, Money and Finance:

of Employment and Output and Neo classical approaches. Equilibrium, analysis under

classical and neo classical analysis. Keynesian theory of Employment and output.

Post Keynesian developments. The inflationary gap; Demand pull versus cost push inflation, the Philip’s curve and its policy implication. Classical theory on Money, Quantity theory of Money. Friedman’s restatement of the quantity theory, the neutrality of money. The supply and demand for loanable funds and equilibrium in financial markets, Keynes’ theory on demand for money.

The Classical theory

4. Financial and Capital Market:

Finance and economic development, financial markets, stock market, gift market, banking and insurance. Equity markets, Role of Primary and Secondary markets and efficiency, Derivatives markets; Futures and options.

5. Economic Growth and Development:

Concepts of Economic Growth and Development and their measurement: characteristics of less developed countries and obstacles to their development – growth, poverty and income distribution. Theories of growth: Classical Approach: Adam Smith, Marx and Schumpeter – Neo classical approach; Robinson, Solow, Kaldor and harrod Domar. Theories of Economic Development, rostow, Rosenstein-Roden, Nurske, Hirschman, Leibenstien and Arthur Lewis, Amin and Frank (Dependency school) respective role of the state and the market. Utilitarian and Welfariest approach to social development and A K Sen’s critique. Sen’s capability approach to economic development. The Human Development Index. Physical quality of Life Index and Human Povery Index.

6. International Economics:

Ricardo, Haberler, Heckscher-Ohlin and Stopler-Samuelson – Theory of Tariffs –

Regional Trade Arrangements.

Gains from International Trade, Terms of Trade, policy, international trade and economic development – Theories of International Trade;

7. Balance of Payments:

Disequilibrium in Balance of Payments, Mechanism of Adjustments, Foreign Trade Multiplier, Exchange Rates, Import and Exchange Controls and Multiple Exchange Rates.

8. Global Institutions:

and WTO, Multinational Corporations.

UN agencies dealing with economic aspects, World Bank, IMF

GENERAL ECONOMICS-III

1. Public Finance:

taxation; Theories of public expenditure: objectives and effects of public expenditure,

public expenditure policy and social cost benefit analysis, criteria of public investment

decisions social rate of discount, shadow prices of investment, unskilled labour and

foreign exchange. Budgetary deficits. Theory of public debt management.

Theories of taxation: Optimal taxes and tax reforms, incidence of

2. Environmental Economics:

UN Methodology of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting.

Environmental Values: Users and non-users values; option value. Valuation Methods:

Stated and revealed preference methods. Design of Environmental Policy Instruments:

Pollution taxes and pollution permits, collective action and informal regulation by local

communities. Theories of exhaustible and renewable resources. International

environmental agreements. Climatic change problems. Kyoto protocol, tradable permits

and carbon taxes.

Environmentally sustainable development, Green GDP,

3. Industrial Economics:

differentiation and market concentration, monopolistic price theory and oligopolistic

interdependence and pricing, entry preventing pricing, micro level investment decisions

and the behavior of firms, research and development and innovation, market structure

and profitability, public policy and development of firms.

Market structure, conduct and performance of firms, product

4. State, Market and Planning:

and market. Indicative Planning. Decentralised Planning.

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Planning in a developing economy. Planning regulation

INDIAN ECONOMICS

1. History of Development and Planning:

of self reliance based on import substitution and protection, the post 1991 globalisation

strategies based on stabilization and structural adjustment packages: fiscal reforms,

financial sector reforms and trade reforms.

Alternative Development Strategies – goal

2. Federal Finance:

the states, Finance Commissions and their formulae for sharing taxes, Financial aspect

of Sarkaria Commission Report, Financial aspects of 73rd and 74th Constitutional

Amendments.Constitutional provisions relating to fiscal and financial powers of

3. Poverty, Unemployment and Human Development:

poverty measures for India, appraisal of Government measures, India’s human

development record in global perspective. India’s population policy and development.

Estimates of inequality and

4. Agriculture and Rural Development Strategies:

land relations and land reforms, rural credit, modern farm inputs and marketing – price

policy and subsidies; commercialization and diversification. Rural development

programmes including poverty alleviation programmes, development of economic

and social infrastructure and New Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme.

Technologies and institutions,

5. India’s experience with Urbanisation and Migration:

flows and their impact on the economies of their origin and destination, the process of

growth of urban settlements; urban development strategies.

Different types of migratory

6. Industry:

Policy relating to small scale industries. Competition policy, Sources of industrial

finances. Bank, share market, insurace companies, pension funds, non-banking

sources and foreign direct investment, role of foreign capital for direct investment and

portfolio investment, Public Sector reform, privatization and disinvestments.

Strategy of Industrial development: Industrial Policy Reforms; Reservation

7. Labour:

and labour welfare – strategies for employment generation – Urban labour market

and informal sector employment, Report of National Commission on Labour, Social

issues relating to labour e.g. Child Labour, Bonded Labour, International Labour

Standard and its impact.

Employment, unemployment and under-employment, industrial relations

8. Foreign Trade:

organization of trade, recent changes in trade policy, balance of payments, tariff policy,

exchange rate, India and WTO requirements.

Sailent features of India’s foreign trade, composition, direction and

9. Money and Banking:

changing roles of the Reserve Bank of India, commercial banks, development finance

institutions, foreign banks and non-banking financial institutions, Indian capital market

and SEBI, Development in Global Financial Market and its relationship with Indian

Financial Sector.

Financial sector reforms, Organisation of India’s money market,

10. Inflation:

Wholesale Price Index, Consumer Price Index: components and trends.

Definition, trends, estimates, consequences and remedies (control):

11. Budgeting and Fiscal Policy:

fiscal reforms, Public debt management and reforms, Fiscal Responsibility and Budget

Management (FRBM) Act, Black money and Parallel economy in India definition,

estimates, genesis, consequences and remedies.

Tax, expenditure, budgetary deficits, pension and

STATISTICS-I

1. Probaility

Elements of measure theory, Classical definitions and axiomatic approach. Sample

space. Class of events and Probability measure. Laws of total and compound

probability. Probability of m events out of n. Conditional probability, Bayes’ theorem.

Random variables - discrete and continuous. Distribution function. Standard probability

distributions - Bernoulli, uniform, binomial, Poisson, geometric, rectangular,

exponential, normal, Cauchy, hypergeometric, multinomial, Laplace, negative binomial,

beta, gamma, lognormal and compound. Poisson distribution. Joint distributions,

conditional distributions, Distributions of functions of random variables. Convergence

in distribution, in probability, with probability one and in mean square. Moments and

cumulants. Mathematical expectation and conditional expectation. Characteristic

function and moment and probability generating functions Inversion uniqueness and

continuity theorems. Borel 0-1 law: Kolmogorov’s 0-1 law. Tchebycheff’s and

Kolmogorov’s inequalities. Laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for

independent variables. Conditional expectation and Martingales.

2. Statistical Methods

(a) Collection, compilation and presentation of data, Charts, diagrams and histogram.

Frequency distribution. Measures of location, dispersion, skewness and kurtosis.

Bivariate and multivariate data. Association and contingency. Curve fitting and

orthogonal polynomials. Bivariate normal distribution. regression-linear, polynomial.

Distribution of the correlation coefficient, Partial and multiple correlation, Intraclass

correlation, Correlation ratio.

(b) Standard errors and large sample test. Sampling distributions of x,s2, t, chisqure

and F; tests of significance based on them, Small sample tests.

(c) Non-parametric tests-Goodness of fit, sign, median, run, Wicloxon, Mann-Whitney,

Wald-Wolfowitz and Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Rank order statistics-minimum, maximum,

range and median. Concept of Asymptotic relative effciency.

3. Numerical Analysis

Interpolation formulae (with remainder terms) due to Lagrange, Newton-Gregory,

Newton Divided different, Gauss and Striling. Euler-Maclaurin’s summation formula.

Inverse interpolation. Numerical integration and differentiation. Difference equations

of the first order. Linear difference equations with constant coefficients.

STATISTICS-II

1. Linear Models

Theory of linear estimation. Gauss-Markoff setup. Least square estimators. Use of ginverse.

analysis of one-way and two way classified data-fixed, mixed and random

effect models. Tests for regression coefficients.

2. Estimation

Characteristics of good estimator. Estimation methods of maximum likelihood, minimum

chi-square, moments and least squares. Optimal properties of maximum likelihood

estimators. Minimum variance unbiased estimators. Minimum variance bound

estimators. Cramer-Rao inequality. Bhattacharya bounds. Sufficient estimator.

factorisation theorem. Complete statistics. Rao-Blackwell theorem. Confidence interval

estimation. Optimum confidence bounds. Resampling, Bootstrap and Jacknife.

3. Hypotheses testing and Statistical Quality Control

(a) Hypothesis testing:

region. Different types of critical regions and similar regions. Power function. MostSimple and composite hypothesis. Two kinds of error. Critical

powerful and uniformly most powerful tests. Neyman-Pearson fundamental lemma.

Unbiased test. Randomised test. Likelihood ratio test. Wald’s SPRT, OC and ASN

functions. Elements of decision and game theory.

b) Statistical Quality Control:

Sampling by attributes-Single, double, multiple and sequential Sampling plans;

Concepts of AOQL and ATI; Acceptance Sampling by variables-use of Dodge-Romig

and other tables.

Control Charts for variable and attributes. Acceptance

4. Multivariate Analysis

Multivariate normal distribution. Estimation of mean Vector and covariance matrix.

Distribution of Hotelling’s T2-statistic, Mahalanobis’s D2-statistic, and their use in

testing. Partial and multiple correlation coefficients in samples from a multivariate

normal population. Wishart’s distribution, its reproductive and other properties. Wilk’s

criterion. Discriminant function. Principal components. Canonical variates and

correlations.

STATISTICS-III

1. Sampling Techniques:

Census versus sample survey. Pilot and large scale sample surveys. Role of NSS

organisation. Simple random sampling with and without replacement. Stratified

sampling and sample allocations. Cos and Variance functions. Ratio and Regression

methods of estimation. Sampling with probability proportional to size. Cluster, double,

multiphase, multistage and systematic sampling. Interpenetrating sub-sampling. Nonsampling

errors.

2. Design and Analysis of Experiments

Principles of design of experiments. Layout and analysis of completely randomised,

randomised block and Latin square designs. Factorial experiments and confounding

in 2n and 3n experiments. Split-plot and strip-plot designs. Construction and analysis

of balanced and partially balanced incomplete block designs. Analysis of covariance.

Analysis of non-orthogonal data. analysis of missing and mixed plot data.

3. Economic Statistics

Components of time series. Methods of their determination-variate difference method.

Yule-Slutsky effect. Correlogram. Autoregressive models of first and second order.

Periodogram analysis. Index numbers of prices and quantities and their relative merits.

Construction of index numbers of wholesale and consumer prices. Income distribution-

Pareto and Engel curves. Concentration curve.

Methods of estimating national income. Inter-sectoral flows. Inter-industry table. Role

of CSO.

4. Econometrics

Theory and analysis of consumer demand-specification and estimation of demand

functions. Demand elasticities. Structure and model. Estimation of parameters in single

equation model-classical least squares, generalised least-square, heteroscedasticity,

serial correlation, multi-collinearity, errors in variable model. Simultaneous equation

models-Identification, rank and other conditions. Indirect least squares and two stage

least squares. Short-term economic forecasting.

STATISTICS-IV

1. Stochastic Processes

Specifications of a Stochastic Process, Markov chains, classification of states, limiting

probabilities; stationary distribution; Random walk and Gambler’s ruin problem. Poisson

process, Birth and death process; applications to Queues-M/M/I and M/M/C models.

Branching Process.

2. Operations Research:

Elements of linear programming. Simplex procedure. Pirnciple of duality. Transport

and assignment problems. Single and multi-period inventory control models. ABC

analysis. General simulation problems. Replacemnet models for items that fail and or

items that deteriorate.

3. Demography and Vital Statistics:

The life table, its constitution and properties. Makehams and Gompertz curves. National

life tables. UN model life tables. Abridged life tables. Stable and stationary populations.

Different birth rates. Total fertility rate. Gross and net reproduction rates. Different

mortality rates. Standardised death rate. Internal and international migration: net

migration. International and postcensal estimates. Projection method including logistic

curve fitting. Decennial population census in India.

4. Computer Application and Data Processing:

(a) Computer Application

Computer system concepts:

Central Processing unit, Main memory, Bit, Byte, Word, Input/Output Devices, Speeds

and memory Capacities in computer systems.

Computer system components and functions. The

Software concepts:

System, application Software, Software for multi-tasking, multi-programming, Batch

Processign Mode, Time sharing mode, Concept of System Support Programme,

Overview of Existing Software packages on Word Processing and Spreadsheets.

Overview of Operating Systems, Types and Functions of Operating

Overview of an application Specific Programme:

Fundamental of design and analysis of Algorithm; Basics of data structure, Queue,

Stack.

Flow charts, Basics of Algorithm,

(b) Data Processing

Data processing:

of integers, Binary representation of real numbers, Logical Data element like character,

fields, records, files, Fundamentals of data transmission and processing incluidng

error control and error processing.

Digital Number System, Number conversions, Binary representation

Data base management:

organisation and procesing. (a) Direct, (b) Sequantial, (c) Indexed Sequential file.

Concepts of Client Server architecture, Data Base Administrator. An overview of DBMS

software.

Data Resource management. Data base and file